The flood-gate rush

When British Steel got nationalised in all but name it was clear that the bail-out flood gates had been opened. Low and behold it took one day from the announcement that Lotus was ceasing production to having the prospect of taxpayers money thrown at them.

So far the industrial “strategy” is little more than throwing money at certain companies to alleviate effects rather than to fix actual problems and energy prices are the most blatant. Sky-high energy prices are down to the marginal pricing model which is gravy-train where wind generators with a marginal generation cost of virtually zero getting paid the same rate as horrendously inefficient peaker power stations. With axing of this scheme off the table high energy prices are structurally locked in.

Oh, and the 2 year consultancy period before any subsidy kicks in. Preying the companies slated to get the kickback actually survive long enough.

Between Brexit and the Trump tariffs building these cars in British factories only makes sense for servicing the domestic market, and that market cannot compete in board rooms who typically think in terms of continents. Any trade deal with the EU that does not involve rejoining the customs union is more or less a waste of time, and with Trump’s stated intention for a reversal of trade deficits any UK-US deal will have nasty side-effects. Put bluntly British exports will not be an engine of British economic growth for for foreseeable future.

So with export markets dead what can Britain actually do? It needs to get its domestic shit in order.

Reform UK’s idea of putting business chiefs in government at first looks like the right direction, but what government really needs is business founders. Farage was a metals trader which is a cushy job obtained via some old-boys network so his ideas of how businesses grow is about as bad as the typical public sector unionised lifer. Michael Heseltine and Chris Huhne are the only two cabinet ministers I can think of within my lifetime who had a proper understanding of business at the sharp end.

Back in the early 2010’s what I saw was SME’s being thrown to the wolves, and the directors of the company I worked for back then had to risk their houses to further the business. Risk must come with reward but the ever-higher taxes and withdrawal of benefits being heaped on the £100k+ earners make this a joke. So forget about this source of growth.

The government has to think in terms of rule rather than exception but so far it looks like 1970’s playbook of avoiding mass layoffs via handouts. The problem is all the companies with around 5-10 employees who lay off one or two rather than taking anyone extra on, and ignoring these micro organisations is in plain sight to see. What is desperately needed is an environment that both respects and understands building things up rather than throw cash at those who can put a gun to the government’s head.

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Third places

Normally in British elections there is a binary attitude to challenger prospects based on whether or not they are in second place, but it is not unknown for third-place parties to leap-frog to victory rather than being squeezed. So the question is simple: Where could Reforn UK do this?

Reform have 34 third-places where they are above 20% and less than 10% behind second-place and in the vast majority of these the winning party is in the mid-30s in percentage share of the vote. These represent odds-off seats where with work a third-party squeeze can be avoided which may result in a future election gain. However interest here is leap-frogs and not longer-term marathons so will use the subjective thresholds of Reform UK being under 6% behind second place and needing under 12% for the gain. This gives 12 seats:

ConstituencyTypeWinner2nd placeReformMargin
Sittingbourne and SheppeyLab/Con29.0728.2125.643.43
Basildon and BillericayCon/Lab30.6430.5926.953.68
South West NorfolkLab/Con26.7225.3022.464.26
DudleyLab/Con34.1228.8226.387.75
BridgwaterCon/Lab30.6027.2422.218.39
Chatham and AylesfordLab/Con33.5128.6224.469.06
Cannock ChaseLab/Con36.4829.2126.949.55
North Warwickshire and BedworthLab/Con35.9730.6026.149.83
LowestoftLab/Con34.5829.7624.699.89
Folkestone and HytheLab/Con34.7326.1124.7110.02
Bridlington and The WoldsCon/Lab34.5827.3024.1110.47
Tipton and WednesburyLab/Con36.9126.2825.1811.73

In swing terms these are better than most of Reform’s second places and if the party is going to do well then it should be taking at least half of these seats. In fact they would be crazy not to make most if not all of these targets. The important bit is not being too far behind third place because then all the old arguments about wasted votes get deployed.

Other parties?

The LibDems don’t have any good third-places. Only 4 of their third-places are above 20% and of those the closest they are to winning is Exmouth and Exeter East where they are 6.5% behind in a Conservative seat with a majority of 122 votes. The last general election was good for them overall so they don’t have many good second places either. The Greens have a surprising number of second and third places but the only two where they are anywhere remotely close is Huddersfield and Bristol South where Labour have majorities of 11% and 17% respectively.

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Labour pains

That time of year for various local and regions elections and first up: Runcorn by-election. This was something I called as a stretch for Reform to win but they managed it. By six votes. So no effort wasted. It was towards the bottom of my list of potential Reform targets and was Labour’s 16 safest seat.

There is usually a backlash against incumbents when an MP leaves their seat alive but in this case it is a reflection of how much Labour have gone against what they claim to stand for, and without the legacy of Thatcher the Labour vote is a turkey shoot for Reform. Labour have blow it and this by-election is just the first of many consequences.

I suspect the Conservatives did not have the local resources to be heard above the Reform bandwagon but for them it is the local elections that are of more concern, as they had by far the most to lost and did. Greens did well to hold onto all their voters.

Labour got lucky in not also losing three mayoral posts to Reform but those were on a pitiful 30% of the vote and had the elections still had the second preferance they would probably have been lost. They are basically relying on distortions of FPTP as it won’t be popularity that saves them.

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