Downfall of DEI

A nice bit in the FT called “Where Woke Went Wrong“ which gives an overview of the movement and how in many ways it fell in on itself.

While at university I was unfamiliar with the term SJW (Social Justice Warrior) but it was close to a perfect fit of the “grandstanding” which was obviously to me killing off the students’ union. Things like boycotting Esso of which the only effect was to leave some sports clubs out of pocket on travel expenses, boycotting the Daily Mail which was pointless since the union shop had folded, and a ban on the union investing in tobacco shares which it would never be able to do anyway. Today this would be known as virtue signalling but that term only became mainstream in the mid-2010s. A good portion of the vandalism such as the statues of Winston Churchill and Edward Colston are people using historic injustices as an excuse rather than a reason.

The problem with diversity is like most targets driven by government it decayed into gaming the system to get the numbers so meritocracy goes out the window. Fine if it is boom-time with lots of people being recruited anyway, but all too often comes down to white males being automatically rejected when things are lean. When openings are scarce the effect on diversity figures is exaggerated.

The backlash can be summed up as DEI: Didn’t Earn It. The feeling one needs to have some sort of minority status to get off the ground.

Like the university SJWs much of DEI was being pushed by people who present a tone-deafness for those on the receiving end and the resentment this breeds eventually blows up. Gaming the system is seen as disregarding the real problem of overall shortage of opportunities.

Posted in UK, US | Tagged , | Comments Off on Downfall of DEI

Reform UK’s targets

Seeing Conservatives urging Elon Musk not to donate to Reform is them desperately scraping the bottom of the barrel and I have come across plenty of talk about them doing a “Canada 1993” but with the British FPTP voting system what are their actual prospects? The constituency level dataset for the 2024 General Election is available from the House of Commons Library and number crunching it gives interesting reading. See Table of Reform UK’s second places at the end for the numbers but immediately apparent are three observations:

  1. They are mostly held by Labour
  2. They are almost entirely “poor” second places
  3. They just scraped many second places

Six of the top-ten are Conservative-held but beyond this Labour is undeniably the target since they hold 89 of the 98 seats. Reform will need Conservative voters but any real targeting of Conservative seats is practically a distraction and ultimately it is in their interest to at least keep the door open to a Reform-Conservative coalition. The name of the game would be to attack what presumably would be a deeply unpopular Labour government.

The average majority over Reform is 23% and even the first quartile is 16% so almost all of Reform’s second-places are far from being marginal. Many of these seats are ones that previously were rock-solid and are the sort that would only be lost in a complete landslide. This requires a level of targeting more akin to by-elections and underlines that they will need to pick their fights carefully. Reform have already made it clear they intend to follow the LibDem playbook with the hope of doing up north what the LibDems did in the south: Rack up votes where it matters.

A lot of the second-places that Reform got they only just scraped. Number two target of Hornchurch & Upminister is a true three-way marginal with the Conservatives having a majority of 4.1% but Reform only a wafer-thin 0.81% ahead of Labour. In total 37 of Reform’s second-places have them under 3.5% ahead of third-place and the median is 5.87% whereas ideally a second-place party wants third-place to be a long way behind so the “two horse race” argument can be deployed. This is not the case in the few Conservative-held seats that have Reform in second-place and in these places claims about splitting the anti-Labour vote will be deployed against Reform.

With these in mind if I had to pick 25 target seats for Reform they would be:

  • Llanelli
  • Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
  • Kingston upon Hull East
  • Bradford South
  • Makerfield
  • Barnsley South
  • North Durham
  • Rotherham
  • Sunderland Central
  • Derby South
  • Heywood and Middleton North
  • Neath and Swansea East
  • Houghton and Sunderland Sout
  • South Shields
  • Stoke-on-Trent Central
  • Bolton South and Walkden
  • Normanton and Hemsworth
  • Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
  • Dagenham and Rainham
  • Washington and Gateshead Sout
  • Easington
  • Ashton-under-Lyne
  • Blackpool South
  • Rawmarsh and Conisbroug
  • Birmingham Erdington

Labour held seats with a majority under 21% as above this threshold the majority more often than not is double Reform’s vote share, and third place is more than 6% further behind so they are straight-up Labour-Reform contests. A direct ten-percent swing is no walk in the park but these are the ones I would be watching closely.

Table of Reform UK’s second places

Majority is difference between the winner and Reform UK whereas margin is difference between Reform UK and 3rd place.

ConstituencyWinnerMajorityMargin1stReform3rd
LlanelliLab3.6917.1131.3027.6010.49
Hornchurch and UpminsterCon4.140.8132.5328.3927.58
Castle PointCon8.006.8438.1130.1123.27
Amber ValleyLab8.363.4537.0228.6725.22
Montgomeryshire and GlyndŵrLab8.822.5929.3820.5617.97
Isle of Wight EastCon9.752.3230.6020.8518.53
Rayleigh and WickfordCon11.720.6537.0125.2924.64
Louth and HorncastleCon11.853.1437.5225.6822.54
Brentwood and OngarCon12.371.3836.6924.3122.93
Great Grimsby and CleethorpesLab13.126.1841.8828.7622.58
Kingston upon Hull EastLab13.1519.7043.7630.6110.91
Bradford SouthLab13.297.8335.8122.5214.69
MakerfieldLab13.4120.9245.2131.8010.88
Barnsley SouthLab13.5323.9646.7433.219.26
MaldonCon13.865.3238.8725.0219.70
North DurhamLab14.1310.1039.8525.7215.62
RotherhamLab14.8722.6345.1430.277.65
South Holland and The DeepingsCon14.933.3138.0223.0919.78
Spen ValleyLab15.070.0739.1524.0824.01
Sunderland CentralLab15.2012.6342.1826.9814.34
Oldham East and SaddleworthLab15.872.2435.1719.3017.07
Dover and DealLab15.882.0639.6423.7721.71
Derby SouthLab16.058.8538.7822.7313.88
Heywood and Middleton NorthLab16.386.9140.5824.2017.30
Neath and Swansea EastLab16.5115.9641.8525.349.38
ThurrockLab17.244.1742.7325.5021.32
Houghton and Sunderland SouthLab17.9115.3747.0529.1513.77
South ShieldsLab18.078.2441.0723.0014.75
Stoke-on-Trent CentralLab18.166.5742.3624.2017.63
Bolton South and WalkdenLab18.2611.3240.8722.6111.29
Normanton and HemsworthLab18.3315.4647.5329.2013.74
North East CambridgeshireCon18.352.6841.4723.1220.44
Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyLab18.4414.0547.5329.0915.03
Dagenham and RainhamLab18.466.3642.6424.1817.82
Washington and Gateshead SouthLab18.6716.5247.7629.0912.57
EasingtonLab19.0618.8848.8729.8110.93
Ashton-under-LyneLab19.1512.4343.9224.7712.34
Blackpool SouthLab19.4712.9748.0828.6215.65
TelfordLab19.893.3944.7124.8221.43
Alyn and DeesideLab20.273.9442.3922.1318.19
Rawmarsh and ConisbroughLab20.3815.3649.0028.6213.26
TorfaenLab20.515.9342.5022.0016.07
Birmingham ErdingtonLab20.566.8943.2822.7215.82
BridgendLab20.772.8039.9219.1416.35
Newport West and IslwynLab21.144.3641.5020.3615.99
Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareLab21.1516.0644.8423.697.63
Barnsley NorthLab21.1720.9150.4429.278.36
Stockton NorthLab21.233.1045.8024.5721.46
PontypriddLab21.3410.2841.2019.879.59
Leigh and AthertonLab21.5711.1948.5126.9415.75
HartlepoolLab21.682.6746.2224.5421.87
Rhondda and OgmoreLab21.7620.3347.8126.055.73
Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorLab22.183.4146.1623.9820.57
Blyth and AshingtonLab22.7011.7249.5826.8715.15
Stalybridge and HydeLab22.932.4443.8320.8918.45
Warrington NorthLab22.957.6346.7823.8316.20
Wakefield and RothwellLab22.992.7243.7220.7318.01
WiganLab23.3513.5547.4424.0910.54
Newport EastLab23.382.2742.4919.1016.84
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceLab23.525.1746.8223.3018.14
Swansea WestLab23.885.2741.4017.5212.25
Gateshead Central and WhickhamLab23.988.9945.3721.3912.40
Jarrow and Gateshead EastLab24.4117.8051.3426.939.13
Worsley and EcclesLab26.075.6347.6621.5915.96
Blaydon and ConsettLab26.429.3750.1223.7014.34
Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastLab26.722.5347.1920.4817.94
Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestLab26.748.6745.6418.9010.22
Nottingham North and KimberleyLab26.930.7647.0820.1519.39
Wolverhampton South EastLab27.525.8750.3322.8016.94
Kingston upon Hull North and CottinghamLab27.947.6048.3420.4112.81
Cramlington and KillingworthLab28.241.9049.0720.8318.93
Leeds EastLab28.601.1347.2518.6517.51
City of DurhamLab28.943.5847.0918.1514.57
Aberafan MaestegLab28.9612.8149.8920.938.12
St Helens NorthLab30.0711.3952.5922.5211.14
Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendLab30.297.3950.0919.8112.42
BarkingLab30.300.5144.4914.1813.67
Coventry EastLab31.401.2049.4618.0616.86
St Helens South and WhistonLab31.4110.3049.7418.348.04
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportLab31.661.4149.4017.7416.33
Whitehaven and WorkingtonLab31.751.0352.9921.2420.21
SmethwickLab31.863.2048.0116.1512.95
Blackley and Middleton SouthLab32.7110.9053.8121.1010.20
Portsmouth SouthLab33.790.1548.4414.6514.50
Runcorn and HelsbyLab34.802.1552.9418.1416.00
StockportLab34.963.5549.8814.9211.37
Gorton and DentonLab36.690.9150.7514.0613.16
Wythenshawe and Sale EastLab37.341.5252.6315.3013.78
SalfordLab38.032.1253.2215.1913.07
Ellesmere Port and BromboroughLab40.294.9357.6417.3412.42
Erith and ThamesmeadLab40.370.9455.0914.7213.78
WallaseyLab42.103.9657.7215.6211.67
Widnes and HalewoodLab43.099.3261.6118.529.20
Liverpool GarstonLab47.872.7858.3710.497.71
KnowsleyLab50.828.7467.2516.437.69
Liverpool West DerbyLab53.745.8766.5712.846.96
Liverpool WaltonLab54.899.2170.5715.696.47
BootleLab56.542.1768.7512.2110.04
Posted in UK, UK Politics | Tagged , | Comments Off on Reform UK’s targets

Irish general election

This one crept up on me. Ireland did not need to hold a general election until the spring but the government opted to hold one last Friday. It was Gerry Hutch standing in Dublin Central making it into the British news that caught my attention and how close he got to being elected certainly caused a stink, but first look is at those who did well.

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s vote share was pretty much unchanged but due to the way the cookie crumbles they both made net gains, which while not quite barn-storming I would call a very good result for them. Michael Martin’s antipathy towards Sinn Fein means that a coalition involving Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is pretty much a done deal and being so close to an overall majority they might not even bother with the baggage of a third coalition party.

The Sinn Fein vote cratered with leader Mary Lou McDonald going from having best party of double-quota in first preferences to not getting elected until the third round, but since they put up far too few candidates last time to take advantage of vote share their nationwide seat count went up by two rather than falling considerably. This was partly due to the increased number of TDs. However this also meant that the hard-left who received a lot of the Sinn Fein surplus lost four of their ten seats and quite likely it hurt the Greens as well.

Not sure why Sinn Fein fell back so far from the 2020 result let alone what they were getting in the polls mid-2022, but they have tanked over the last 12 months. This corresponds with the fanning of anti-immigration flames and they seemed notably quiet during the rioting, so anecdotally it looks like they utterly fluffed it with housing being hijacked by trouble-makers.

The real losers are the Green Party who lost all but one of their seats and might even fall below the threshold for party funding. Glad they are gone. From my perspective the height of Green Party virtue-signaling was rearranging of the North Quays to accommodate cycle lanes that would go mostly unused and it was also clearly intended to rub non-cyclists’ noses into it. They should have instead made the entire river side an unbroken bus lane rather than all the cross-crossing that gets stuffed up even with lockdown-era levels of traffic. A lot of people simply cannot afford their energy policies. Only surprise is the extent their support evaporated as I was expecting them to still keep 3-4 seats.

With the Greens basically gone it did looks like it was going to be between the Social Democrats or Labour who take their place, and my feeling is Labour would be more willing as they’ve done the coalition thing before. However being only two short of an overall majority having a third coalition party may be considered not worth the hassle and it would be easier to either tap some independents or even just opt for minority government.

And finally there was Gerry Hutch who came close to taking a seat in my old area of Dublin Central and is at least known to be a crook. Fine Gael have taken the piss too many times for me to vote for them again and there is not much to choose from aside from the left-wing nutters. I am generally not fond of independents but things are so bad in Dublin that electing such characters is the only choice the electorate have left, and I could foresee giving him 3rd or so preference.

Posted in Eire | Tagged | Comments Off on Irish general election