When making the scripts for the Reform UK targets they were also used to see what LibDem second-places looked like and the numbers (listed at the end) show the contrast between the two parties. In short pretty much everything the LibDems could gain they already have. They only have 27 second-places of which 20 are Conservative-held, and they typically have more than one of following traits:
- LibDem share of the vote under 30%
- Third-place not that far behind
- Double-digit majorities
There are only 6 seats that have none of these and with their majorities being between 1.6% and 4.4% they are notionally easy to gain. Top of the list is Godalming & Ash which Jeremy Hunt only barely held because he spent all his time in this constituency rather than campaigning nationally. However on the grand scheme of things these 6 misses are set against 64 actual gains which is a 92% success rate.
The LibDems at the next election will be a defensive campaign and many of these are against the Conservatives in places where Labour are fighting Reform UK for third-place. They will have the incumbancy advantage but they need to be going after Conservative voters rather then trying to squeeze Labour.
Table Of LibDem second places
Majority is difference between the winner and LibDems whereas margin is difference between LibDems and 3rd place.
| Seat | Winner | Majority | Margin | 1st | LibDem | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godalming and Ash | Con | 1.63 | 32.15 | 42.59 | 40.96 | 8.80 |
| Farnham and Bordon | Con | 2.54 | 19.38 | 35.75 | 33.20 | 13.82 |
| East Hampshire | Con | 2.55 | 21.51 | 37.01 | 34.46 | 12.95 |
| South Shropshire | Con | 3.14 | 13.23 | 34.13 | 30.98 | 17.76 |
| North Dorset | Con | 3.20 | 17.56 | 36.65 | 33.45 | 15.89 |
| Romsey and Southampton North | Con | 4.38 | 23.96 | 39.76 | 35.38 | 11.43 |
| North Cotswolds | Con | 6.68 | 10.90 | 34.69 | 28.01 | 17.11 |
| Torridge and Tavistock | Con | 7.77 | 2.62 | 31.58 | 23.81 | 21.18 |
| Burnley | Lab | 8.61 | 2.82 | 31.72 | 23.11 | 20.29 |
| Hamble Valley | Con | 8.89 | 11.33 | 36.43 | 27.53 | 16.21 |
| South West Hertfordshire | Con | 9.23 | 4.90 | 34.11 | 24.87 | 19.97 |
| Mid Buckinghamshire | Con | 10.88 | 9.47 | 37.35 | 26.46 | 17.00 |
| Sevenoaks | Con | 10.90 | 7.11 | 36.73 | 25.83 | 18.72 |
| Hinckley and Bosworth | Con | 11.31 | 5.87 | 35.63 | 24.32 | 18.45 |
| Beaconsfield | Con | 11.43 | 12.20 | 38.75 | 27.32 | 15.12 |
| West Worcestershire | Con | 11.97 | 8.96 | 36.17 | 24.20 | 15.24 |
| Sussex Weald | Con | 13.91 | 2.03 | 34.08 | 20.16 | 18.14 |
| Christchurch | Con | 15.75 | 1.11 | 35.79 | 20.04 | 18.93 |
| Runnymede and Weybridge | Con | 15.81 | 1.77 | 38.22 | 22.41 | 20.65 |
| Sheffield Hallam | Lab | 15.87 | 18.37 | 46.27 | 30.40 | 12.02 |
| East Grinstead and Uckfield | Con | 16.83 | 0.79 | 38.34 | 21.51 | 20.72 |
| Bermondsey and Old Southwark | Lab | 20.71 | 12.21 | 44.83 | 24.12 | 11.91 |
| Arundel and South Downs | Con | 22.17 | 0.16 | 40.19 | 18.03 | 17.87 |
| Cardiff East | Lab | 23.25 | 4.49 | 40.47 | 17.22 | 12.73 |
| Cambridge | Lab | 26.31 | 4.02 | 46.59 | 20.28 | 16.25 |
| Ceredigion Preseli | Plaid | 31.94 | 3.4 | 46.9 | 15.0 | 11.61 |
| Clapham and Brixton Hill | Lab | 42.13 | 0.92 | 56.54 | 14.41 | 13.50 |