After a punch-up by the constituency’s MP there is now a by-election coming up in Runcorn & Helsby which while notionally a safe Labour seat is the sort of place where the government will have pissed off all the wrong people with its recent budget statement.
Austerity by the current government actually started the moment the zero-based spending review was announced because government departments promptly cancelled work with contractors pending the outcome. However welfare cuts are the point where austerity can no longer be denied and with “no return to austerity” being a head-line election promise this will come back to haunt them. As I prophesied back in February austerity alongside increased military spending is an even less popular mix summed up by Welfare Not Warfare which predictably has Labour MPs nervous. And all this still fresh in the mind.
Basically Labour have lost the gallery. What they say in this by-election won’t matter because most won’t be listening.
While Reform have the all-important second-place it is one of their weakest with the Conservative party not far behind and Labour sneaking through on 35% of the vote is practically Labour’s life-line. For Reform to win means humiliating the Conservatives as much as if not more than Labour, which is a two-front battle. But can it be done?
In these northern places the legacy of Thatcher still haunts the Conservatives and they are far from dragging themselves out of the unpopularity pit that saw them hit a low that pushes recorded history. Lots of baggage Reform do not have and they are not presenting anything to convincingly differentiate themselves.
Greens and LibDems will be happy to keep their deposits. This is not their fight.
This is one of those elections which will come down to how much the incumbent craters and this looks exactly like what is going to happen to Labour. There is not much worse they could have done that strikes at the heart of what they stand for to their support base and the anger might be enough to see them pipped at the post. Still a stretch for Reform to gain the ground but this is a prize they will pull the stops.