That time of year for various local and regions elections and first up: Runcorn by-election. This was something I called as a stretch for Reform to win but they managed it. By six votes. So no effort wasted. It was towards the bottom of my list of potential Reform targets and was Labour’s 16 safest seat.
There is usually a backlash against incumbents when an MP leaves their seat alive but in this case it is a reflection of how much Labour have gone against what they claim to stand for, and without the legacy of Thatcher the Labour vote is a turkey shoot for Reform. Labour have blow it and this by-election is just the first of many consequences.
I suspect the Conservatives did not have the local resources to be heard above the Reform bandwagon but for them it is the local elections that are of more concern, as they had by far the most to lost and did. Greens did well to hold onto all their voters.
Labour got lucky in not also losing three mayoral posts to Reform but those were on a pitiful 30% of the vote and had the elections still had the second preferance they would probably have been lost. They are basically relying on distortions of FPTP as it won’t be popularity that saves them.