Last year I thought Scotland might be the wild-card in a future election, but the election was called with the SNP still in disarray and it is now reported they had no cash donations this year. Barring a rabbit out of the hat I suspect the SNP will not be able to afford the sort of campaign that is needed to keep Scottish Independence alive.
John Swinney has been SNP leader before so he’s no green-horn but he simply has had no time to really make any mark, let alone address any of the longer-standing rifts within the party. The damage of how Humza Yousaf is still raw and this will hurt the party as a while. And not much has yet been heard from Alba who could tear into SNP support.
Generally people vote with their wallets and this coupled with the SNP tanking further in the polls makes me think they may well get a hammering. For Scottish independence to be alive and kicking they need to get the most seats in Scotland and ideally get at least half of them like they did in 2017, whereas anything below 25 Scottish seats is independence on life-support.
One poll I saw today puts them on 17 Scottish seats. Never mind life-support that would be morgue territory. Scottish nationalists have a hill to climb and fast.