Always wanting more tax

So what is a surprise for no-one the budget announcement turn was a classic case of needing ever greater amounts of taxation revenue.

A few weeks ago an intention to break the manifesto pledge on income tax was about explicit as these things come in politics, but they then copped out in favour of whacking lots of narrow tax bases. There may or may not have been kite flying but there is public indecisiveness and with the whole Wes Streeting leadership challenge fiasco the signs are of a government not in control.

As an aside in 1947 just letting slip a few minor details was a resigning matter. That was over the top but still far better than the current clown-show.

With the sleight-of-hand on employer NIC thresholds going the whole way and explicitly breaking the pledge on taxation would have been damaging to the government, but it would not have been the worst aspect. The real damage would have come from the previous budget which in itself was heavy-going having been declared a one-off for the entire parliament with reiteration of the taxation pledges. Last time Reeves ruled out freezing tax bands as it would “hit working families” but that is now exactly what has been done.

As a result the government can no longer present any convincing case that some if not all subsequent budgets will be the same, which is compounded by there being nothing to show in terms of spending control. For the ordinary private citizen the only credible narrative is things getting ever more expansive.

However the biggest disaster is the previously signalled pension fund raid via capping tax breaks on salary sacrifice schemes. This destroys any remaining incentive to put in anything beyond the auto-enrolment statutory minimums. As well as once again hammering businesses. This is criminal given the current problems of people not saving enough if anything for retirement.

Savings in general have also been hit with a 2 percentage-point tax increase which is a further kick in the teeth given how low savings interest is these days, as well as being a further piss-take with the no income tax rise promise. The Cash ISA limit cut almost in half to £12,000 but for some reason only for the under-65s which shows how little the government really cares about the younger generations.

Upping gambling taxes from 21% to 40% is hardly a surprise and it is an obvious raid on an unpopular industry but such a hike will likely lead to closures and lower revenue in the longer-term. All parcels (even small ones) being subject to customs is desperate scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Not a budget for someone who wants to make it in the private sector. Would not be surprised if all this contributes to a recession.

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Smashing the local suppliers

ExxonMobil is closing its Mossmoran chemical plant in Scotland. The reason is competition from ethylene exports from the US that are exempt from carbon tariffs.

Yes, local production has to pay a tax that foreign sources do not. In much the same way British farmers have to contend with ever more regulations and hence costs such as animal welfare standards that overseas farmers do not have to deal with.

This is exactly the craziness that stifles growth that the country needs if the economy is not going to end up in a doom loop, but with hands tied behind backs the investment will never materialise. This is classic cost of government crisis.

With the Energy Profit Levy and various other taxes north sea oil producers pay a total tax rate if 78%, so no wonder investment in British waters has collapsed. Once again helping strangle local production that will simply be taken over by imports. Britain is not the only country doing this. Over in Ireland they banned all new oil and gas exploration with the ultimate goal that Ireland does not produce any. Pure virtual-signalling as all it means is importing oil and gas instead as Ireland is not going to stop consuming these things any time soon. Irish electricity production is circa 65% gas when the wind does not blow.

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Comin’ back for more 1970s style

When a government refuses to rule out breaking an election pledge you know they are scraping the bottom of the barrel. At this stage saying this is an outright admission that breaking the pledge is already been planned.

Stating that “the world has changed” will not do. The world is always changing and most of the problems were known about before the last election. The previous budget introduced huge tax rises on the basis that it was a “one-off” but that will now be seen as a government-defining fib. They will be stained as a party who will whack up taxes at every opportunity.

The attempt at softening-up by the drip-drip of possible tax targets with the delusion that people will be glad it will turn out not as bad as expected has simply crushed investment. Money people and organisations save because they might get smashed again like they were over school fees VAT and National Insurance is money that does not go towards growth. And those in charge are surprised at why things are statistical noise away from recession.

Reinforcing the narrative that Labour will come back for more again and again is there being no demonstrable ability to control costs. The underwriting of JLR by £1.5 billion was no surprise once the taps were opened for British Steel giving succuor to the idea Labour are back to the 1970s.

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