So the UK has now asked for a “short” extension. I think they will get it, but it is going to be a token gesture — one final kick of the can down the road in the delusion that something might change. And the distance of the kick will be short.
The French at the very least have been playing hard-ball in that an extension should only be permitted if there is a clear plan as to how the time will be spent. I think they actually know the time will be wasted, but will let it slide as a cheap concession to the less hawkish (remaining) EU members. At this stage much of the game is making sure that as much blame as possible is nailed to the UK for its eventual crash-out of the EU.
There was some talk of a long extension, but whether or not it was ever serious or not still leaves an unaddressed brick wall: UK participation in the 2019 Euro-elections. There is a bit of confusion whether the date of the elections (22-26 May) or when the new intake of MEPs are due to sit (start of July) is the cut-off point, but to me this is a minor point — five weeks versus eleven weeks is nothing compared to the three years the UK has already had, and fudging the legals for six extra weeks will make no practical difference. In any case as things stand in the UK participating in the Euro-elections is a political no-no.
Donald Tusk’s line is that a long extension would also require a “major change in British politics” but with Westminister already rejecting the deal twice and the Speaker putting procedural barriers in the way of it being presented a third time, ratification of the deal by the UK is a hall order. As a result a major change in practice implies a general election or at the very least a new referendum, which ain’t gonna happen.
Those pushing for a hard Brexit know it is well within their grasp so they will not give in now.