No-Deal is coming

Earlier in the week there was a vote in Westminister to rule out a no-deal exit — a vote that is devoid of any substance. So far any sort of deal has failed to get through Westminister, and the Brexit deadline is just over a fortnight away.

The prospect of a deal getting through Westminister is remote. On the Conservative government benches there is the ironically-named European Research Group (ERG), who to cut a long story short are not really interested in a deal. They will claim that no-deal is better than a “bad” deal, but to them the criteria for the latter excludes any realistic deal. The DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) who are propping up the Conservative government are basically only interested in the hardest of Brexits.

Of course things on the opposite benches are much the same. Labour will simply vote for whatever is most likely bring down the government, and that means voting against the government regardless of the merits of any presented deal. The other opposition parties seem to simply be following Labour’s lead, even if for notionally different reasons, but I have not bothered looking into their individual agendas. Some are aiming to reverse Brexit but I think the main driver is being able to say they voted against an inevitably bad deal.

The vote to rule out a no-deal exit in any circumstances is meaningless — for it to have substance it would have to either delay/cancel Brexit or present a fall-back deal. Unless there is something to amend or repeal the provision within the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 of 23:00 on 29 March as when withdrawal occurs, not having an agreed deal means a no-deal exit, and so far there is nothing out of Westminster that puts a deal in place.

As for amending the withdrawal date (it won’t be a repeal), I am guessing this is what the next vote will have to propose, but whether that passes is another issue…

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