The calling of the general election in the UK a few days ago caught a lot of people off-guard but now it is the weekend there is now a clearer idea of what just kicked off. As things stand calling the election is a strategic and tactical blunder, including escorting a journalist out of a party event while he was broadcasting live, but now it has happened things will start to take shape.
It looks like British prime minister Rishi Sunak basically snapped and decided that he could not continue, such as having no desire to face another party conference, and there have been noises that some MPs just want to get on to new things. Calling an election during the school holidays is a faux pas in its own right that will almost certainly depress the turnout, with any net damage being the result of anger towards the incumbent who made such a move. If the economy really is improving the thing to do is wait for the results, but at the moment there is basically nothing concrete to show for it so the “turned the corner” message will inevitable fall on deaf ears. Electorally there is no obvious up-side.
Stop the press: Campaign already turning into a shit-show and it seems many Conservative Associations might not be able to put up candidates.
The long six-week campaign may lead to scrutiny that Labour rightly or wrongly has not had, and certainly vested interests will be vicious towards them, but without a black-swan event there is too much of a Labour lead to erode. Labour are right to have been tight-lipped after their non-dom tax plans were hijacked and ‘spent’ but now they have to show detail.
What might derail Labour is a Gaza-related backlash such as their support among Muslims collapsing but with this vote concentrated in Labour strongholds it is hard to see the Conservatives capitalising much on this. The Conservatives are so much more pro-Israel so them using it as a stick to beat Labour will inevitably back-fire badly, especially in those seats Labour are not in the running.
As an aside if David Tully restands in Rochdale I think he has a good chance of taking the seat off George Galloway. The by-election is still fresh in the minds and there will be people who want to see Galloway gone.
The Liberal Democrats have been below the national radar and the one thing that is already clear is a ruthless targeting of a small selection of Conservative seats. The polls suggest LibDems and Reform will get much the same national vote, but the distribution will give the former seats but almost certainly none to the latter. Will come back to these two in the future.
I have no love for the Greens but I don’t expect them to be empty-handed after this election. The election being held at a time when most students will have gone home might scupper the Green’s chances in Bristol Central but I still think they have a reasonable chance of gaining it. As for Brighton Pavilion much of that looks like personal vote and their routing in the 2023 locals will be cause for concern.